天山天池近49年气候变化特征   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

马洪亮  马燕  薛福民 《气象科技》2010,38(2):209-213

基于天山天池气象站1959～2007年的逐日地面气候资料,应用线性倾向估计、功率谱分析、滑动t检验及距平标准差对比分析等方法对天山天池气候变化特征进行了分析。分析表明:天山天池气候变化具有明显的多尺度振荡特征,并且具有明显的年际变化,年平均气温在1996年附近发生突变,降水未出现气候突变现象。气温和降水的变化和天山山区"暖湿型"变化趋势一致,最低气温的升高对天山天池增温贡献最大,最显著增湿趋势出现在春季和冬季,夏季降水量持平而雨日却减少,夏季极端强降水天气增加。  相似文献   

Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Yongkang Xue  Fernando De Sales  W. K.-M. Lau  Aaron Boone  Jinming Feng  Paul Dirmeyer  Zhichang Guo  Kyu-Myong Kim  Akio Kitoh  Vadlamani Kumar  Isabelle Poccard-Leclercq  Natalie Mahowald  Wilfran Moufouma-Okia  Phillip Pegion  David P. Rowell  Jae Schemm  Siegfried D. Schubert  Andrea Sealy  Wassila M. Thiaw  Augustin Vintzileos  Steven F. Williams  Man-Li C. Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(1):3-27

This paper briefly presents the West African Monsoon (WAM) Modeling and Evaluation Project (WAMME) and evaluates WAMME general circulation models’ (GCM) performances in simulating variability of WAM precipitation, surface temperature, and major circulation features at seasonal and intraseasonal scales in the first WAMME experiment. The analyses indicate that models with specified sea surface temperature generally have reasonable simulations of the pattern of spatial distribution of WAM seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature as well as the averaged zonal wind in latitude-height cross-section and low level circulation. But there are large differences among models in simulating spatial correlation, intensity, and variance of precipitation compared with observations. Furthermore, the majority of models fail to produce proper intensities of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) and the tropical easterly jet. AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) data are used to analyze the association between simulated surface processes and the WAM and to investigate the WAM mechanism. It has been identified that the spatial distributions of surface sensible heat flux, surface temperature, and moisture convergence are closely associated with the simulated spatial distribution of precipitation; while surface latent heat flux is closely associated with the AEJ and contributes to divergence in AEJ simulation. Common empirical orthogonal functions (CEOF) analysis is applied to characterize the WAM precipitation evolution and has identified a major WAM precipitation mode and two temperature modes (Sahara mode and Sahel mode). Results indicate that the WAMME models produce reasonable temporal evolutions of major CEOF modes but have deficiencies/uncertainties in producing variances explained by major modes. Furthermore, the CEOF analysis shows that WAM precipitation evolution is closely related to the enhanced Sahara mode and the weakened Sahel mode, supporting the evidence revealed in the analysis using ALMIP data. An analysis of variability of CEOF modes suggests that the Sahara mode leads the WAM evolution, and divergence in simulating this mode contributes to discrepancies in the precipitation simulation.  相似文献   

中国东部夏季降水与东亚垂直环流结构及其预测试验   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

韩雪  魏凤英 《大气科学》2010,34(3):533-547

本文在分析中国东部夏季降水的时空分布特征基础上, 从东亚高、中、低层大尺度环流异常着手, 选取对中国东部夏季降水异常有显著影响的大气环流预报因子, 分别应用逐步回归和最优子集回归法两种统计降尺度方法, 以动力气候模式CAM3.1预报输出的大气环流预报因子为基础, 以中国东部夏季降水的典型空间分布型为预报对象, 建立动力与统计相结合的中国东部夏季降水预测模型, 并对1981～2000年的中国东部夏季降水进行回报试验。结果表明: 中国东部夏季降水具有4类典型的空间分布型式, 且具有显著的准2年和年代际尺度振荡周期; 东亚高、中、低层大气环流异常的特定配置, 对东部夏季降水的空间分布型有显著影响; 使用两种降尺度方案建立的动力与统计相结合的预测模型对中国东部夏季降水异常具有一定的预报技巧, 可以在一定程度上提高动力模式对中国东部夏季降水的预报效果。  相似文献   

新疆北部冬季暖区大降雪过程中尺度云团特征分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

赵俊荣  杨雪  杨景辉 《高原气象》2010,29(5):1280-1288

利用1997-2006年深秋到冬季新疆阿勒泰地区出现的17次暖区大降雪天气过程的卫星云图资料、常规观测资料和地面降雪量资料,并选取其中3次典型的暖区大降雪过程,对暖区大降雪天气过程的中尺度云团演变特征进行了详细分析,进一步揭示暖区大降雪天气的成因。结果表明:500 hPa极涡是造成新疆北部阿勒泰地区暖区大降雪过程的天气尺度影响系统,极涡中心南部或东南部分裂出的中尺度短波是造成暖区大降雪天气的直接影响系统;TBB≤-60℃的中-β和中-α尺度系统云团是造成暖区大降雪天气的主要系统。暖区大降雪的TBB≤-60℃的中-β和中-α尺度系统云团是在绕极涡移动的高空锋区短波槽前和暖平流输送区形成,并位于极涡中心南部或东南部的低层到高层强锋区中,在随着天气尺度云系移动的同时,绕极涡中心逆时针旋转,移速缓慢或稳定少动,移动中逐渐加强或合并,其多表现为椭圆形或圆形,暖区大降雪发生在TBB≤-60℃的中-β和中-α尺度云团边缘TBB等值线梯度最大处。中-β和中-α尺度云团面积越大、生命史越长,造成的暖区大降雪范围就越大、强度也越强;TBB≤-60℃的中-β和中-α尺度云团在阿勒泰地区上空维持数小时可造成阿勒泰地区暖区大降雪天气。  相似文献   

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刘根友  薛怀平  郝晓光  郭爱智  易庆林 《大地测量与地球动力学》2009,29(3):70-73

?????????????????????è???10??GPS??????????2005??2007?????????????ò???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????3?????????????????α?λ????????????????????????????  相似文献   

The sensitivity of a 3D biogeochemical-like tracer model to advection schemes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guimei  Huijie Xue 《Ocean Modelling》2009,29(4):234-247

Multidimensional Positive Definite Advection Transport Algorithm (MPDATA) and Monotonic Upstream Schemes for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) are compared and evaluated in a biogeochemical-like tracer model. Based on the MUSCL scheme, an adapted scheme for σ-coordinate models (MUSCL_VD) is presented. These schemes are first implemented in idealized experiments configured for a closed channel with and without a seamount, and conservation is confirmed. MUSCL_VD and MUSCL generate the same results in the flat bottom case, while MUSCL_VD is the only scheme that avoids unphysical values in the seamount experiments. When implemented in a three-dimensional model of the Gulf of Maine (GoM) with realistic topography and real-time forcing, the modeled distributions of an inert tracer concentration are sensitive to the advection schemes. The experiment with MUSCL shows persistent overshoots. MPDATA and MUSCL_VD produce similar spatial distributions and seasonal cycles with MUSCL_VD being slightly more diffusive in the horizontal and less so in the vertical. These two schemes are about equally efficient in computation.  相似文献   

辽东半岛南部中上寒武统高频旋回层序划分及沉积速率初探     

单学东  李显东  战丽华  杨雅君 《国土资源》1999,(4)

通过对辽东半岛南部中晚寒武系张夏组、炒米店组高频旋回层序及复合海平面变化的划分、研究,以及对高频旋回层序的类型、各种级别旋回层序形成时限及其控制因素的讨论,探讨高频旋回沉积速率的变化规律,认为沉积速率的变化过程是一个非渐变的由底部向顶部加大的变化趋势,各种级别旋回层序的沉积速率变化情况相似,由小级别旋回到大级别旋回的逐级叠加,形成一非渐变的变化曲线。  相似文献   

Microsatellite DNA polymorphisms and the relation with body weight in sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus     

WANG Xiuli  SHAN Xue  QIU Xuemei  MENG Xiangying  CHANG Yaqing 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2009,27(2)

The relationship between microsatellite polymorphism and body weight of captive bred Chinese sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus was investigated in two local populations in Dalian.Among ten loci discovered, nine show changes except for A J07 loci. Seven loci were found highly polymorphic in both populations. For each locus in two populations, the average number of alleles is 6.428 6 and 6.285 7, the average observed heterozygosity at 0.225 7 and 0.245 9, the expected heterozygosity at 0.776 8 and 0.748 8, the polymorphism information content (PIC) at 0.709 2 and 0.674 6, respectively. Further analysis show significant correlation between A. japonicus body weight and occurrence markers AJ02 and AJ04. The findings of the relation may be helpful for molecular breeding,as well as the marker-assisted selection of sea cucumbers.  相似文献   

三峡水库蓄水后巴东地区波速比( Vp/ Vs)研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈俊华  甘家思  李普丽  薛军蓉  李峰  李垠 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(Z1):12-14,42

采用固定台站法计算了三峡水库蓄水后湖北省巴东地区 ML2.0以上地震的波速比值,并给出了各自的相关系数.结果显示,巴东地区地震波速比值变化与水库地震的震源浅,裂隙发育,水的渗入作用等有关,并存在扩容期间波速比降低,震前波速比回升的现象.  相似文献   

基于NDVI的三峡大坝岸边植被时空特征分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

王晶晶  白雪  邓晓曲  王明翠 《地球信息科学学报》2008,10(6):808-815

三峡工程建设对生态系统中植被的破坏很明显,尤其是岸边带附近。本文基于多时相遥感图像,采用NDVI序列计算植被覆盖度,通过比较三峡大坝蓄水前后1978、1999、2006年3个时期坝区9月份岸边3km缓冲区的植被覆盖度特征、动态变化,描述了研究区各年份植被覆盖分布以及近30年的植被覆盖变化特征;同时,从面积角度定量,采用分级分析了变化大小,并应用统计学的非参数Wilcoxon秩和检验方法对不同时期、不同土地利用类型的覆盖度样本进行了检验,得到如下结论:近30年间,三峡大坝岸边带植被覆盖变化显著,1978～1999年时间段,由于大坝工程建设植被破坏程度较高,有植被覆盖的区域面积下降了3.31km²;1999年至2006年时间段,在有8km²的淹没区情况下,有植被覆盖的区域仅下降1.57km²,说明植被恢复较明显。近30年间,三峡大坝植被覆盖度整体上有增加的趋势。  相似文献